A PREDICTION MARKET FOR WEATHER AND CATASTROPHIC EVENTS
THE WISDOM OF CROWDS
In 1906, a contest was held at a county fair challenging people to accurately guess the weight of a cow. Although the individual guesses were widely distributed, the average of the guesses was nearly exact.
This has shown us that information about a quantity, or a future prediction, is held collectively among the masses. Prediction markets harness this crowd wisdom in order to extract accurate forecasts about something in the world.
We aim to create a set of prediction markets for weather phenomena and catastrophic events - markets which will be easy to use by ordinary people, but also useful to fund managers who wish to trade or transfer event risk.
HOW IT WORKS
Our trading platform divides the world into geographical hexagons. Each hexagon is its own weather marketplace. Traders pay to place points (’nodes’) on the map where they predict the weather (and in future versions, other catastrophes) will be the most severe.
Traders who predict events with the most accuracy and foresight get the largest payout from the pooled funds in that hexagon.
A MARKET WITH HEART
At IrisVector we believe that we can expect more from markets - more than just economic utility, but also a positive function for humanity.
Information derived from our prediction market forecasts will be provided to government emergency planners and relief efforts in real time, for free.
Additionally, part of the trading cash flow will be diverted to disaster relief charities to help eliminate hardship.
Our motto is:
“Every disaster creates its own relief fund.”